June revenue up 16 to 32 pct y-o-y: analysts

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Opinions on the uptick in gross gaming revenue for the month of June remain widely divided, ranging from between 16 per cent and 32 per cent year-on-year, according to analysts from Bernstein and Wells Fargo.
Contributing to the estimates were the strong visitation results seen in May – 2.6 million visitors, a 4.4 per cent year-on-year uptick, with overnight visitors up 14 per cent and same-day down 6 per cent, year-on-year.
For Wells Fargo, implied daily averages of MOP615 million to MOP645 million are behind their 16 to 22 per cent prediction for June, year-on-year, however the analysts point out that the current recovery ‘could stall once the stimulus from loose credit and the Chinese housing bubble wears off – as it did in 2013/2014’.
Berstein analysts predict MOP20.9 billion to MOP21 billion in revenues for June, with a ‘slightly high’ month-to-date VIP hold rate at 3 per cent. Average daily revenues were up 2 per cent month-on-month and 38 per cent year-on-year, the group points out.
Threats to this month’s revenue figures revolve around the visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Hong Kong for the neighbouring SAR’s 20th handover anniversary, with Bernstein noting that ‘traffic control around the region may impact Macau’s gross gaming revenue negatively’.
For Wells Fargo analysts, the smoking ban remains a ‘potential headwind’, coupled with the housing bubble in China as a negative, contrasted by the overnight visitor growth ‘given it signals that room supply is being absorbed and overnight guests tend to stay and play longer’.