Analysts are divided as to whether June will come to mark the first month of growth in revenues by Macau’s casinos, after two years of consecutive monthly declines. In a statement sent to Lusa news agency, Grant Govertsen, from Union Gaming, anticipates revenues of 17.5 billion patacas (US$2.18 billion), less than 1 per cent growth year-on-year, but which, if it happens, will be a first in a two-year cycle. The calculation aligns with that of Aaron Fischer (CLSA consultant), who last month anticipated zero growth (0 per cent) for June, revising downwards its own forecasts of 5 per cent, advanced in January. The return to a path of gaming revenue growth in June is, however, far from certain, with other analysts anticipating declines of between 1 and 8 per cent. Carlo Santarelli and Danny Valoy, from Deutsche Bank, note that the trend in May – the month in which casino revenues fell 9.6 per cent – was more negative than expected by investors. While acknowledging that performance can improve year-on-year they believe that revenues from Macau’s casinos will remain in negative territory this month, anticipating a decline of about 6 per cent. JP Morgan goes even further by advancing the possibility of “June being the worst monthly performance of gaming revenue in 70 months”. The investment bank anticipates that casino revenues could fall between 5 and 7 per cent in annual terms, to between 16 billion and 16.4 billion patacas (between US$2 billion and US$2.05 billion), a value that, if confirmed, would be the lowest since September 2010. Several analysts interpret this year as the “stabilization” of the Macau gaming industry, but are divided regarding the 2016 outcome. Chief Executive Fernando Chui Sai On, when presenting the budget for 2016 last November, took a cautious stance and said that the Government predicts that casinos would close the year with revenues of 200 billion patacas (US$25 billion). If confirmed, that will mean a double digit fall (around 13.3 per cent).
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