Looking back

The Year of the Rooster has just begun. The signs are encouraging, leading people to believe the economy is coming out of a severe downturn. At least, the worst of the crisis seems to be over. For many years, many might be forgiven for (really) thinking that the sky was the limit. Still, it was inevitable that sooner or later reality would re-introduce itself in the picture. It did, and earlier growth expectations were shattered. A new confidence is building but it would be wise to be more guarded.
Extraordinary changes happened in the last twelve years. On the previous Rooster visit, who would have guessed how different things would look today? Then, the first casino of the new era, as it were, had just been operating for a few months. Most of those that came later were still on the drawing board. How different does the beginning of 2017 look compared to the start of 2005?
The population increased fast, at about 2.8 per cent per year, on average. If sustained, such an average rate would mean the doubling of the population in just about one generation. By demographic standards that is very fast – if not too fast! Most of the rise was the result of a growing number of non-resident workers. The workforce increased by about three-quarters in the same period – it could double in just about 15 years!
The number of casinos and hotel rooms (not to mention other associated facilities) rose even faster, well before our eyes. At the end of 2016, the revenues generated by gambling had increased more than fivefold, driving a remarkable growth of GDP and GDP per capita. Hotel rooms, all categories included, rose more than fourfold; in the top layer, 5-star hotels, the same figure stood six times above the one recorded by the end of 2005.
Due to changes in accounting methodology, the direct comparison between the number of visitors at the beginning and end of this cycle is not possible. However, the figure is currently oscillating at or above a mind-bending average of 2.5 million every month – which almost looks unexceptional nowadays.
We could go on. Whatever indicators we use, the changes they point to are often stunning. As we start a recovery, it is important to take stock of what came before. And realise the landscape has changed; the future is unlikely to be just a reenactment of the past.