Policy matters

There is a reason why policy-setting studies are associated with political science and not a branch of the exact sciences. Humans and human societies are complex entities, driven by multiple and often conflicting factors. They are frequently and ‘naturally’ difficult to predict. Policies that deliberately and directly try to affect particular kinds of behaviour need to deal with that inherent uncertainty.
One of the toughest tasks of policymakers is to anticipate what we could call second order effects. Direct effects and connections between a certain policy measure and its immediate and visible effects are often quite discernible – or even obvious. That does not mean that policy success is assured. As people adapt to new circumstances and incentives, their behaviour may change – and often will. And the linkages upon which the policy measure hinged may weaken – or vanish.
Let me give an example.
Health authorities go to great lengths to repress smoking. Among the many measures taken was a steep rise in tobacco taxes. The linkage is obvious, and no-one will contest it: more expensive cigarettes mean, so economics tells us, less demand and consumption. Success assured? Not so fast. Certainly, the amount of cigarettes bought locally will go down proving economics – and, at first sight, the government – right. There are other alternatives. People may procure alternative sources of supply, may direct their addiction to other harmful types of consumption, and so on.
The number of changes that may occur depends naturally upon the precise nature of the issues. As some doors close, some windows will open. New business opportunities may arise, as people react and adapt to the new rules. As a result, sometimes the outcome will be detrimental to the intended one – if not the opposite. The success of the policy may be much less than expected; in some cases, the outcome may be worse than the original problem. Related problems may be aggravated; new issues may pop up unexpectedly. The real effects of the policy must be monitored and corrective measures – subject to the same uncertainty – may be required. These are well known issues in policy studies.
You may ask now, why all this talk? Well, when challenged (never too much) on their policy measures, our public officers often seem eerily unaware of these matters. Somehow, they appear to believe the expected result is ‘scientifically’ assured. It isn’t!
At best, it looks more like an act of faith.